This was supposed to be the year that US inflation rode the last mile down to 2%, letting the Federal Reserve steadily reduce interest rates from a two-decade high. Now those expectations have been dashed.
Price gains have proven much stickier than anticipated a few months into 2024 amid a resilient economy and labor market. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said persistent inflation means borrowing costs will stay elevated for longer than previously thought, a shift in tone with ramifications for policy around the world.
A persistent shortage of housing is partly to blame, as are rising commodity prices and car insurance premiums. But some also point to Powell himself for prematurely telegraphing interest-rate cuts, which ignited optimism in financial markets and fueled economic activity.
“They just got the inflation picture wrong,” said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC. “The mistake they made was they got really enamored with the combination of really strong growth and benign inflation that we saw in the second half of last year.”
Commodities
After falling for much of last year, energy prices — specifically oil — climbed in the first quarter, and an escalation in the war in the Middle East threatens to push them even higher. The rally has translated to more expensive gasoline. Electricity prices have also climbed.
Shelter, Insurance
Shelter, which accounts for about a third of the CPI, has proved the most stubborn. Despite some timelier measures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Zillow Group Inc. and Apartment List that show rent growth for new leases coming down, the corresponding components in the CPI have yet to reflect that.
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